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Corn- The Corn market has blessed growers with excellent upside opportunity in the last half of June 2023.  Any seasonal chart would indicate that over time, markets tend to peak in the May-July window where U.S. row crop farmers are busy getting fields planted.  On this year’s chart, June 21st may very well be the day Dec corn futures peaked, then ran out of steam.  A rapid planting pace in the U.S. encouraged funds to build a modest short position in corn & soybeans, which seemed like a great place to be positioned as demand for U.S. Grains & Oilseeds lacked luster.  Though the demand picture hadn’t changed, as we can attest to here in Ontario once crops were in, we couldn’t buy a rain.  It only took a couple sharp decreases to the Good-Excellent ratings for funds to quickly cover in positions and head for higher pastures.  We watched as December corn futures rallied $1.00/bu in just one weeks time, cresting the $7.00 cash mark for the first time in a long time.  That price point certainly brought out the sellers, with most folks sitting undersold in their positions, the opportunity to lock in profits were warmly welcomed.  Our trade team made quick work of getting the word out of what was happening in the marketplace encouraging as many growers as possible to take advantage of what we had in front of us while it lasted.  Just as fast as we rallied up, as soon as any amount of moisture was introduced into key counties that were looking skyward, the market took it right back.  Couple the moisture relief with a June 30th USDA report that added 2 Million Acres of corn into the balance sheet vs what we were told in March 2023. Where did those acres come from?  Right out of the hands of Soybeans and the wheat that was ripped up in the U.S. HRW Wheat belt.


Soybeans- Soybeans like corn have blessed us with opportunity in the ladder half of June, though our outlook for the oilseed suggests it should stay supported into the new crop marketing year.  Reason being U.S. soybean stocks are and continue to be projected tight going forward.  Record crush margins have increased domestic usage, and while those margins have softened recently, they do still remain historically strong.  With $17.50 cash beans on the table, take a look at your position and begin adding sales if the numbers make sense to your operation.  Our trade team doesn’t see anything wrong with locking up anywhere from 30% to half your upcoming crop at these values, while leaving yourself open enough to capture any upside potential we may see as the year develops.


Wheat- Wheat harvest is well underway through SW Ontario & with the frequency of recent rainfall, farmers have had to be versatile, working in tight harvest windows to get this larger than average crop put away.  Yields have been above average in most, if not all regions. Fall seeding conditions combined with a mild Ontario winter allowed the crop to come into spring well established setting up for what will likely be a record crop size for the province.  While producers have been happy with yields, quality is a mixed bag, Windsor-Essex through Kent County & into Lambton have all seen plenty of rain since the crop came ready.  We aren’t seeing widespread issues with Falling Number like we did in 2021 through the same geography, which in a way makes it more difficult for growers & buyers to navigate what needs to go where.  To make the harvest season even more exciting, the futures market has given us lots to talk about.  With escalations in the RUS/UKR conflict recently, we saw the Safe Grain Corridor deal paused until Russian demands are fully met and it didn’t take long after the announcement to watch as Chicago wheat traded limit up 60 cents after key export infrastructure along the Danube River was attacked from the skies.  This terminal is crucial, located next to neighboring Romania it can supply EU markets by land, and is also equipped to load bulk vessel cargoes.  Like any bullish narrative, a constant supply of fresh news is required to keep the bull fed, a day after that limit up trade we didn’t get that, so traders quickly reversed and sold the market 50 cents lower.  We believe the wheat market will continue to trade headlines out of Eastern Europe, so depending on the headline it will be important to keep a close eye on your farm’s position.  Entering orders to sell at desired values are ways of capturing these quick runs that are here today & often gone tomorrow.

2023 & 2024 wheat program classes below
 Soft Red Winter - Hard Red Winter - Soft White Winter   





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